Ballon d'Or Blueprint, What Erling Haaland Must Do to Secure the Top Award
The pursuit of the Ballon d’Or remains the ultimate individual goal for the world’s elite footballers, and for Manchester City striker Erling Haaland, the path to securing the Golden Ball is now clearer than ever. Following his remarkable, yet ultimately unsuccessful, challenge against Lionel Messi in the 2023 ceremony, the conversation has shifted from missed opportunities to mandatory milestones. Crucially, club legend Sergio Agüero offers a pragmatic assessment of what the Norwegian powerhouse must achieve to claim the coveted award.
Haaland’s debut season at the Etihad Stadium (2022/23) was historic: he propelled City to a monumental treble—the Premier League, FA Cup, and Champions League. His individual statistics were staggering, netting 52 goals in just 53 appearances across all competitions. Despite this club-level dominance, Haaland finished as the runner-up to Lionel Messi.
The Messi Factor and the Treble Dilemma
The determining factor in 2023 was undeniable: Messi’s heroic performance in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, where he inspired Argentina to glory, securing the one major trophy that had eluded him. Messi’s unforgettable display in the knockout stages and the final secured his record-extending eighth Ballon d’Or, a result Haaland himself accepted without argument, calling Messi “the best of all time.”
Even City manager Pep Guardiola, having worked with both legends, acknowledged the complexity of the vote. “Haaland should win, yes, we won the treble and he scored 50, I don’t know, a million goals,” Guardiola said at the time. “But of course, if you tell me Messi’s worst season? It’s the best season for the rest of the players. Both deserve it, what can I say?”
Guardiola’s comments underscore the dual criteria of the award: immense individual achievement versus career-defining international success. Haaland’s incredible expertise at club level was simply overshadowed by the unique nature of the World Cup year.
The Current Standing and Agüero’s Insight
The subsequent voting results highlight the volatility of the award. Haaland saw a dramatic decline, falling to fifth place in the 2024 voting before slipping further to the 26th spot in the 2025 rankings, which recognized Paris Saint-Germain forward Ousmane Dembélé as the world’s best player. This severe drop emphasizes that past success does not guarantee future placement, making the current season crucial.
Fortunately for City fans, Haaland has commenced the 2025/26 campaign in blistering form. Across 12 appearances for Manchester City and Norway, he has already registered an incredible 21 goals, including a five-goal haul against Moldova and a hat-trick against Israel. Despite this surge, City sits fifth in the Premier League table, signaling that individual glory still depends heavily on team results.
When asked by Stake about Haaland’s chances of winning the Golden Ball, former City striker and club icon Sergio Agüero offered clear counsel, focusing on the long game.
“Why should Erling Haaland have missed his Ballon d’Or chance? The season has just started and he still has a chance,” Agüero stated, dismissing the idea of a lost opportunity.
Agüero, drawing on his own elite experience in the modern game, identified the two key pillars of a successful Ballon d’Or campaign: consistency and Champions League success.
The Blueprint for Unanimous Victory
According to Agüero, “The consistency we see from him and the other players will determine what happens, but the Champions League results will also be crucial for the Ballon d’Or.”
This analysis provides the definitive blueprint for Haaland. To avoid being marginalized by other contenders’ major tournament victories, the Norwegian must make his own case utterly undeniable:
- Sustained Goalscoring Dominance: He needs to maintain his unbelievable scoring rate not just for a season, but across multiple, consecutive major tournaments and league campaigns, proving his long-term authoritativeness in the sport.
- Champions League Apex: Winning the Champions League again is vital. However, Haaland must be the undisputed central figure in that victory, delivering decisive, memorable performances in the semi-finals and the final.
- National Team Advancement: While Norway is not a favorite, any deep run or strong individual showing in upcoming major international tournaments (like the Euros or World Cup) will significantly boost his profile among global voters.
The 2023 award proved that incredible numbers are not enough when faced with a singular, historic achievement. For Haaland to finally lift the Ballon d’Or, he must not only maintain his goal-scoring genius but also ensure that his team’s success, particularly in the Champions League, is seen as utterly inseparable from his individual brilliance.
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